The construction of the Fehmarnbelt connection creates 42,000 man-years in direct and indirect employment.
This emerges from a new analysis from COWI.
The first phase of tunnel construction has especially created Danish jobs, but in the long run there will be an increasing need for foreign labor.
The Danish labor in demand will not be immediately present to a sufficient extent, and there will therefore be a need to increase the workforce, particularly in the construction industry.
Therefore, the access to vocational education must be increased, and there will be a significant need for supplementary education on an ongoing basis, states the COWI report.
Six main conclusions of the COWI analysis
The COWI analysis, which was carried out for the regional labor market councils in the capital (RAR Hovedstaden) and Zealand (RAR Sjælland), has six main conclusions:
Jobs for 42,000 man-years
The construction project itself is expected to create a total labor demand of up to 20.000 man-years in direct effects, and the greatest need is expected to be in the period 2024-2027.
The indirect effect is estimated to 22.000 man-years.
In the initial phases of the work, Danish employment is expected to be relatively high, as many initial tasks have been assigned to Danish companies.
In the long run, there is a need for both Danish and foreign labor.
These jobs will be demandet
There will be a particular demand for experienced non-skilled workers, drivers, blacksmiths, electricians and engineers.
From 2021 to 2026, there will be a great demand for non-skilled people for earthworks, concrete work on portals and not least for casting and shipping concrete elements for the immersed tunnel.
From approximately 2026, there will be increasing demand for skilled labor - especially electricians, blacksmiths, etc. for assembly of installations, signaling systems, etc.
The project will also demand labor from a large number of subcontractors.
Among other things. wholesale, construction companies, engineering consultancy, local service (catering, accommodation, etc.) and transport.
Especially catering, accommodation, etc., building and construction as well as transport are expected to draw on the local companies and thus affect the local labor market.
Problems with local recruitment
Local companies, job centers and educational institutions can not by them selves satisfy the project's needs for labor and fulfill the potential for Danish labor in construction.
There is therefore a great need for cooperation and coordination regionally and across the country. The challenge for the local labor market near the Fehmarnbelt and Rødbyhavn will be a declining workforce, which is expected to hit the construction industry in the coming years.
The workforce must be expanded in the construction field
COWI expects that the Fehmarnbelt will attract some labor from the other construction companies in the country locally, regionally and possibly also nationally.
It is likely that the employment opportunities on the Fehmarnbelt connection will mean many job changes in the industry, and that local and regional companies will experience a need for recruitment and perhaps even recruitment problems due to job changes among their employees.
Therefore, it is important that labor market and education efforts are directed towards both the ordinary construction and civil engineering labor market and towards the Fehmarnbelt construction. The focus should also be on expanding the workforce in the construction industry in general - through more vocationally trained people and by attracting people from the outskirts of the ordinary labor market into jobs.
The access to vocational education must be increased
The declining workforce is a serious challenge for both the Fehmarnbelt project and for the rest of the construction industry in the coming years.
The recruitment base among the unemployed is very limited, and further recruitment difficulties can therefore be expected in the coming years.
Lack of vocational training at national level and locally in Zealand and in the municipalities near the Fehmarnbelt connection can develop into a major problem. The access to vocational education has been declining in recent years across the country, and recruitment problems among electricians, plumbers, carpenters, bricklayers, blacksmiths and others. can turn out to be great.
There is therefore a need to highlight both the educations and the positive employment opportunities in this industry and continue the work of motivating both the young people to start a vocational education and the companies to establish apprenticeships.
The need for training initiatives is already relevant for the construction industry in general, where there is a great demand for skilled workers. The Fehmarnbelt connection will increase the demand for skilled workers, especially from 2026.
Need for further training
At present, it is not realistic to establish a training and recruitment plan for labor for the Fehmarnbelt connection.
On the other hand, COWI considers that it will be absolutely crucial to maintain and develop the formalized and constructive framework for the ongoing contact between contractors, Femern Agency, vocational schools and RAR and to establish a contingency plan to launch continuing education at relatively short notice - for recruitment to Fehmarn Belt and to the rest of the construction industry.
Fehmarn Agency, Femern Belt Development, the local job centers, the regional labor market councils and offices as well as i.a. the educational institution Center for Vocational Education Lolland Falster, CELF, will have a key role in this coordinating effort.