This study (1st phase) analyses traffic demand (up to 2015) in the relevant competition corri- dor of the Rostock-Gedser line, for passengers and freight, by road and by rail. It describes the competitive position of this route compared to other routes today and in the future (with improvements at the Fehmarn Belt and at other hinterland lines) and identifies the catchment area of Rostock-Gedser. On this basis, a rough estimate of potential traffic volumes to be at- tracted to Rostock-Gedser is made, assuming specified improvements.
Increasing traffic volumes via Rostock-Gedser could contribute to regional development, es- pecially in weak regions along the corridor. This contribution is described in this Pase 1 re- port.
Main conclusions from this analysis are:
Rostock-Gedser has a clearly defined catchment area with only limited overlaps with other routes; most relevant is traffic to/ from Denmark (Sealand and southern archipel- ago), while southern Sweden is less important due to direct ferry links to Trelleborg; on the continental side, the catchment area concentrates on Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and eastern parts of the New Länder.
In this catchment area, Rostock-Gedser already today attracts a high share of potential demand, particularly for road passengers and road freight;
For rail passengers, Rostock-Gedser offers no attractive option at present. While train frequencies from Berlin to Rostock or from Gedser to Copenhagen are one restriction which is difficult to overcome, relevant restrictions are concerning the quality of interfaces (including harmonisation of departure schedules) from main stations to ports and within the ports;
By removing these bottlenecks, a total amount of close to 65,000 railway passengers could be attracted to Rostock-Gedser without a Fehmarn-Belt fixed link. With such link, this potential would be reduced; This potential volume gives no justification for improved train densities on the land side, nor for through trains using the ferry line;
For road passengers and freight, the potential for shifting demand to Rostock-Gedser seems to be less significant. For rail freight there is no realistic potential.
Removal of the dis-attractions for rail passengers through Rostock-Gedser is most rele- vant for passengers travelling from/ to Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (excluding its western- most parts which would prefer Fehmarn Belt).
A detailed analysis of interface improvements for rail passengers will be prepared during phase 2 of this study.
The benefits for weak regions along the corridor from an improved railway connection Berlin-Rostock-Gedser-Copenhagen will be limited and will concentrate at the centres and points of intersection: Berlin, Rostock, Gedser and Copenhagen.